Tom Bilyeu

Tom Bilyeu

Three Crises Are About to Collide Into One Giant Crash

A long live episode of The Tom Bilyeu Show, taped the morning the United States launched its biggest strikes on Iran since the ceasefire began, arguing that three crises are lining up to hit at once. Bilyeu walks through the energy and geopolitics shock keeping oil high, a debt and currency crisis where Japan raising rates threatens to unwind the yen carry trade that has flooded the world with cheap money, and a possible AI bubble whose revenue is arriving too slowly for its debt. He frames all three as a potential rogue wave using the real version of the boy who cried wolf, then covers the Graham Platner allegations, the Mitch McConnell disappearing act, and the opening of the Tyler Robinson preliminary hearing, where he and his cohosts find their algorithms feeding them opposite realities.

Tom Bilyeu

The Supreme Court Just Opened a Backdoor for China

A two hour live episode of The Tom Bilyeu Show recorded the morning after the Supreme Court closed its term with three rulings: it let states bar transgender athletes under Title IX, struck limits on party coordinated political spending, and preserved birthright citizenship against Trump's executive order. Bilyeu argues that last ruling leaves a backdoor for China through organized birth tourism, which is why Trump sarcastically congratulated Xi Jinping, and he floats worldwide income taxation as a fix. The wide ranging conversation runs through court reform, JD Vance on refilling the oil economy, a DSA primary win in Colorado, Mamdani's New York budget versus Florida abolishing property taxes, and the Charlie Kirk forensic questions. The deepest segment argues the real story is an AI arms race in which China uses model distillation and open source to erode the American industry propping up the economy, and closes on whether AI destroys more jobs than it creates.

Tom Bilyeu

Iran Is About to Control the World's Oil — and You'll Pay for It

A nearly two hour live episode of The Tom Bilyeu Show recorded as a United States and Iran ceasefire came apart again. Bilyeu argues Iran is negotiating through violence to seize the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of the world's oil, and that if it succeeds it will charge tolls and raise energy costs everywhere. He uses Ukraine knocking 20 percent of Russian refining offline as a live preview, then turns the same mechanism lens on the California billionaire wealth tax, the productivity to wages split, 30 percent inflation, Europe's deadly heatwave and its refusal to allow air conditioning, and entitlement fraud. His organizing idea is that every grievance has a mechanism, and that anger aimed at the wrong mechanism makes the problem worse.

Tom Bilyeu

How The Fed Quietly Created America's Communist Moment

A two hour Tom Bilyeu Show episode arguing that the rise of openly socialist Democrats is the downstream effect of a broken money system Bilyeu traces to the 1913 Federal Reserve and the 1971 end of the gold standard. He and co host Drew debate Zohran Mamdani and the DSA, why populism spikes when the economy hurts, who really subsidizes cheap Walmart wages, whether Trump should send the DOJ after big oil, and how the government plans to inflate away a national debt he puts above 39 trillion dollars. It closes on a long, candid argument about Muslim immigration, a Michigan flag ban, and whether America is a Christian country. The through line is Bilyeu's one rule: follow cause and effect.

Tom Bilyeu

The PROOF We’re In A Simulation Is Hiding In Plain Sight (Part 3)

Tom Bilyeu opens the third installment of his simulation trilogy with a confession dressed as a thesis: you have no free will, none, and that is the best news he has ever delivered. He builds the case in four moves. First, free will dies in biology, with Phineas Gage, Robert Sapolsky's Determined, and a 2008 Berlin fMRI study that read decisions out of the brain up to ten seconds before the subject felt them.

Tom Bilyeu

NEW: More Evidence You're an NPC in a Video Game (Part 2)

Tom Bilyeu argues that four unrelated oddities in physics, drawn from four different branches, all point to reality behaving like a simulation. The four signatures are the Fermi paradox and the silence of a galaxy that Drake's equation says should be crowded, the fine tuning of roughly two dozen physical constants including a cosmological constant off from theory by a factor of 10 to the 120, the Planck length floor beneath which our equations break, and the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics in describing a universe that keeps turning out to be computational. He is explicit that he is not claiming a theory of everything or that the simulation is literal, only that one frame explains all four at once. This is Part 2 of his NPC series and sets up the argument that we have no free will.

Tom Bilyeu

Nobel Prize Was Just Awarded For Proving THIS! - The Shocking Proof You’re in a Simulation

Tom Bilyeu sits down with MIT trained computer scientist and video game entrepreneur Rizwan Virk, author of The Simulation Hypothesis, around one hook: the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics for showing the universe is not locally real. Virk argues a simulated universe explains quantum indeterminacy, the multiverse, and fine tuning better than a physical one, and that the world's religions describe the same idea in older language. They walk through Schrodinger's cat, the cosmic delayed choice experiment, John Wheeler's it from bit, near death experiences, remote viewing, and UFOs, always through a game developer's lens. Bilyeu plays the skeptic, pressing Virk on free will and life after death, so the episode becomes a friendly argument between two people who agree we are probably in a simulation and disagree about what that means for the soul.

Tom Bilyeu

We Live in a Simulation. The evidence is everywhere. All you have to do is look. | Donald Hoffman

Tom Bilyeu and cognitive scientist Donald Hoffman spend nearly three hours arguing that space and time are not fundamental but a rendered interface, a headset. Hoffman builds the case on two pillars: the 2022 Nobel Prize confirming local realism is false, and his theorem that the probability evolution shaped our senses to report objective truth is exactly zero. From there they push into conscious agents, Markov dynamics, Cantor's infinities, the halting problem, dark matter, free will, and near death experiences. Bilyeu presses a sharp counter throughout: you can accept the interface idea without making consciousness fundamental, a thirteen year old programmer with a rule set would do, which only pushes the deeper question down one level.